The response of the herder community clearly indicated that they
perceived the climate of Gobi mountainous region to have changed over the last
few decades. Herders also noticed that
there is temperature disorder, seasonal shift and seasonal differences blurred
that winter temperature is warmer/milder (99% of respondents) summer is often
cooler (70% of respondents). Winter chill cold helps livestock more sturdy and
fit. Furthermore, seasonal temperature and precipitation changes are likely to
affect plant phenology. In general, changes in phenological events are thought
to be among the most sensitive biologic responses to warming (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)(Liancourt et al., 2012).
Similarly, the different warming trends in winter and summer were
affecting the phenology of forage plants, and herders were responding by
changing their grazing patterns. In general, herders determine the timing of
the spring and summer migration from the height and development stage of grass.
Precipitation and rain onset: Precipitation makes
huge changes for herders’ lifestyle and their livestock. Herders express more
about precipitation than temperature because landscape is more spelled by
precipitations to regulate better yield (Wesche &
Retzer, 2005)(Fernandez?Gimenez & Allen?Diaz, 1999). Frequent occurrence
of flush and patchy rain would not beneficial for the pasture to get nurtured. Rain
amount may same or more as before but rain intensity and rain pattern spells
more for rangeland. According to (Tsutomu Yamanaka, Kaihotsu,
Oyunbaatar, & Ganbold, 2007) individual rain less than 3 cm depth of moisture would not affect soil moisture
significantly. Therefore, local herders observe changes with relation to the
impact of response to rangeland rather standard estimation.
Gobi herders pay particular attention to the variation in the
timing of dry spells and in the onset and end of the rains. Prolonged dry
spells can cause significant damage to the pasture.(Sternberg, Thomas, &
Most of (79.1%) of interviewees said intensity of rain
increased rather gentle rain not happening that moderate and gentle rains are
better absorbed into the soil and make up available moisture for plant growth,
while the same amount of rain falling in a short period, due to its force, may
bring flooding and surface run-off, transporting and eroding the surface soil.
Therefore, the water is not soaked into soil, which could be much drier in the
end of the day compared to periods following light rain events (Goulden et al., 2016)(Trenberth, 2011). Herder often
comments that the timing of the onset of the rains has become less regular and precipitation
spread not evenly patchy rain often occurs. Though the meteorological data it
was hard to justify whether it’s getting irregular or not and rain
If a winter brings very small amount of snow or no snow, some
people which are dependent on snow as drinking water and livestock cannot use
some pasture which has got better restored vegetation due to no drinking water.
Also, winter precipitations very detrimental for wild ungulate that snow acts
as drinking water. In 2014-2015 winter, there was no snow occurred in the area
that wild ungulates (ibex- Capra sibira)
mass death happened due to thirst.
Wind speed: local meteorological station could not able to capture
wind speed more than 40mc which suggesting that if indeed there are more dust
storms, they cannot be explained by increase wind speed. Also wind can consequentially
contribute to precipitation and dryness (T Yamanaka, Tsujimura, Oyunbaatar,
& Davaa, 2007).
Dry soil and air significantly contributes strong wind and medium value of wind
speed creates more doubt for dust storm occurrence (Natsagdorj, Jugder, & Chung,
Local people suggests that dryness (water diminishing), strong, lengthy wind
are associates with human induced destruction of changes such as mining,
technical development increase the intensity of the problem coupled with
Yet, herders’ perception of climatic change not all supported by
general trends. Having more proxies improves to current and further condition
of area which ca significantly contributes to local herders’ livelihood
decision making. Basically, there are
often gap appears between local knowledge and scientific data which may due to
mismatching the term and scales they uses as well as climatic variation human
exposures does not often capture by general statistic trend and mean values.
Climate scientists can benefit from recognizing this local
detailed information to fine-tune the climate prediction that define seasonal
phenomena and useful for climate scientists for tracking the climatic changes
as well as this is another way to support production of scientific knowledge